FOR the last 12 years there has been an intrinsic comedy value in checking the bookies' odds before a major international football tournament. The reason was the degree to which the patriotic (still a polite word for "stupid") pound swayed the markets. England fans would back their boys with the same fervour they would invest in slabs of inferior lager, St George's flags and stickers for their white vans.
Given Steve McClaren's thoroughly efficient job of denying England a place at this summer's shebang, you might think that the odds for Euro 2008 would reflect a cool rationality. Not so.
Indeed, the British bookmakers' prices seem thoroughly at
odds with form, instead illustrating the fears and hopes of the stay-at-home English (the Scots might well be enthusiastic punters but they are outnumbered eight to one by their southern neighbours).
The tournament favourites, Germany, at 7-2, are half the odds of the current world champions Italy.
English football fans, perhaps understandably, have a cultural cringe in the face of the German national team, refusing to believe that the Germans might ever suffer from a dearth of talent or an indifferent attitude. The Germans haven't won a match at the Euro finals since 1996 (albeit that was in the final itself), but that hasn't dented consumer confidence.
A sober analysis of the German squad would point out that Joachim Löw's team has a suspect goalkeeper who spent the season sitting on his Arsenal bench, an uncertain central defensive partnership, an elderly centre-forward in Miroslav Klose and a midfield maestro Michael Ballack who might be in form but likes the national team to revolve around him or not at all.
On the plus side, the Germans have a kind draw, and a potential revelation in the forward Mario Gomez whose style is as un-Teutonic as his name. Making them hot favourites though seems to be placing premature faith in the revival of German football.
Their impressive showing at the last World Cup could be attributed to home advantage (which admittedly still applies partially in Austria and Switzerland) and the "Klinsi" effect. Löw has yet to demonstrate he has the charisma to go with his tactical acumen.
The second favourites in most markets are the Spanish, again more a reflection of British affections, and Anglocentric adoption of the likes of Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres, than a rational weighing-up of their chances. The historical failings of the Spanish need more space than is available here to unravel, but nobody has made a profit from backing them in major tournaments.
Traditionally they have been everybody's favourite dark-horse, an outsider with talent but a suspect big-race mentality. Whenever their odds wander into single figures they should lose their appeal. At a steady 11-2, they are burdened with blind faith cash.
Piling further retrospective respect on Walter Smith and Alex McLeish, the strongest candidates to be regarded as big guns in a tournament that is otherwise pretty open, must be the Italians and the French. They were worthy World Cup finalists in 2006 and neither has suffered a substantial decline since.
French players like David Trezeguet, Mathieu Flamini, Gael Clichy and Djibril Cissé are indicative of the strength of Raymond Domenech's squad, given that he has declined to pick any of them.
This tournament may be the last fling of the old guard like Patrick Vieira, Thierry Henry, Lilian Thuram and Claude Makelele. What they have in common is a certain disappointment with their domestic seasons, and a chance for some personal redemption with La France. You can get 9-1 for your investment, far better value than the average Parisian brasserie.
The French are in the "group of death" with the Italians. Perhaps the generous 7-1 about the world champions reflects their traditional sluggishness in starting tournaments. That could be fatal if they falter in their opening match against the Dutch next Monday.
It certainly can't be a reflection on a squad that, if anything, seems stronger than in 2006, despite the loss of Alessandro Nesta. The discovery of the Italian season has been an obscure young (at heart) forward called Alessandro Del Piero, top scorer in Serie A after finishing top in Serie B last season.
With striker Luca Toni banging 39 goals past sluggish German defences this season, the Italians could even defy stereotypes and be the free-scoring entertainers of the tournament. Any side with Andrea Pirlo, Rino Gattuso and the elegant Roma revelation Alberto Aquilani in midfield has to be taken seriously.
One of your pounds gets eight back for an Italian victory. You don't need to be Silvio Berlusconi to see a certain wisdom in that investment.
The Germans may prevail, but they are hardly a one in four or five chance of doing so. The heart, if that organ can ignore the repellent Luis Aragones, can go with the Spanish, but the wallet is always better following the Italians.
The full article contains 843 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
