GIVEN the current global economic malaise, perhaps it's not entirely surprising to see further evidence of dumb investment. But a quick glance at the present odds for the 2010 World Cup offers the revelation that England are presently fourth favourites to lift the trophy, at a best-price 11-1.
Fabio Capello's side have maximum points from their first three qualifiers, but have still contrived to look edgy and inconsistent in the process. Apart from the patriotic pound though, their popularity in the betting offices perhaps reflects a gener
al weakness perceived in the European challenge.
Spain's victory in this summer's European Championships, while welcome and deserved, signalled the power shift. This was not a temporary blip that could be dismissed (as with the victories of Denmark and Greece), but evidence that the traditional powerhouses of Italy, France and Germany had been superseded.
With less than two years to the finals, it is apparent that Germany and Italy have to find new talent and assimilate it quickly. France have the talent, but may suffer from failing to overhaul their management structure in the summer. Spain have maintained continuity by installing the avuncular elder statesman Vicente Del Bosque to take over from the irascible Luis Aragones, and the new coach can draw on a production line of stars.
France and Italy were both held to draws in eastern Europe on Saturday, not disastrous results, although the performances were indicative of sides urgently needing an overhaul. By contrast, Spain cruised to a comfortable 3-0 win in Estonia without having to exert themselves. Germany, at home, held on nervously in the second half against a resurgent Russia, and were lucky to escape with three points.
Wednesday night's qualifiers feature ostensibly simple home fixtures for the Germans and Italians, against Wales and Montenegro respectively, but neither side looks like they will be entirely comfortable. Italy cannot find an effective goalscorer, with Luca Toni's hapless summer form pursuing him deep into autumn. Montenegro have drawn with Bulgaria and Ireland in their qualifiers to date, and are unlikely to be whipping boys. Italy have the consolation of knowing that Group 8 has no really formidable opposition, although there is the intriguing aspect of Giovanni Trapattoni leading the Irish against his homeland. The stars who dragged Italy to the trophy in Germany two years ago have begun to run out of energy and their younger replacements have yet to emerge as genuine world-class prospects.
Joachim Löw must also spend the next two years tinkering with a familiar vehicle with little opportunity to make it any more dynamic. Lukas Podolski and Michael Ballack scored against Russia, and, barring the sudden emergence of wunderkinder from an uninspiring Bundesliga, it will be the old guard who are entrusted with Germany's campaign in South Africa. Germany can make finals with uninspiring teams, as they showed in 2002 and 2008, but Löw must yearn for a new Müller, Matthäus or Karl-Heinz Rummenigge.
Europe's flair teams, Netherlands and Portugal, have yet to state a convincing case. If we still remember with fondness the Netherlands' flamboyance against Italy and France in the summer, we also recall the way they succumbed to Russian vibrancy in the quarter-final. Wednesday sees them travel to Norway. The Norwegians, as they proved at Hampden Park on Saturday, are roughly equivalent to Scotland. If the Dutch can be harried off their game in Oslo, the same can happen to them at Hampden. The summer showed that they relish high-profile head-to-heads, but their credibility as genuine World Cup candidates in South Africa will rest on how they negotiate these kinds of fixtures.
Carlos Queiroz has had a shaky start as Portugal coach, exemplified by a shock 3-2 defeat at home to Denmark, although the mitigating circumstances were the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo. If Ronaldo gets down to what he does best (who said winning penalties?), starting with Albania on Wednesday, Portugal should be able to drift past the earnest, but limited, Denmark and Sweden and dominate Group 1. Deco, Ronaldo and Ricardo Carvalho make Portugal contenders in any tournament, although, unlike Spain, they have yet to show they have the fortitude to deliver a trophy. Offering them at double the price on England though does fall into the realms of the tempting.
Meanwhile, anyone considering that 11-1 about England, firstly consider giving power of attorney over your finances to somebody of sound mind; and secondly, wait until Wednesday's game in Minsk, after which Capello's team may be at more generous odds.
The full article contains 775 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
